Evaluation of the Federal Skilled Worker program

Appendix A: Profile of Federal Skilled Workers surveyed

Out of 30,000 FSWs who arrived to Canada between 2002 and 2008 and were invited to participate in the study, 2,053 consented and 1,499 were surveyed. The information on the number of years of school completed, landing province, their gender, country of birth, level of education, age at time of landing, marital status, mother tongue, and the knowledge of official languages, allows the profile comparison of FSW surveyed to that of the sample (30,000) and the population (66,612). Appendix A presents the various distributions.

Appendix A-1 : Number of years of school completed
Years of School	Respondents surveyed	Total Sample	Population
n/a	5.0%	3.9%	3.9%
1-14	7.9%	5.6%	5.8%
15	10.5%	8.4%	8.6%
16	15.4%	15.9%	15.8%
17	16.8%	16.5%	16.5%
18	14.3%	18.5%	18.6%
19	10.2%	10.5%	10.3%
20	6.7%	7.7%	7.6%
21	5.1%	4.7%	4.7%
22	2.4%	3.3%	3.4%
23	2.4%	2.0%	2.0%
24	1.4%	1.2%	1.2%
25	2.0%	1.6%	1.6%

Appendix A-2: Intended province of destination
Province	Respondents surveyed	Total Sample	Population
Unknown	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Newfoundland	0.4%	0.2%	0.3%
Prince Edward Island	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%
Nova Scotia	2.5%	1.5%	1.4%
New Brunswick	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Quebec	2.0%	2.5%	2.5%
Ontario	56.7%	63.6%	61.8%
Manitoba	1.3%	0.9%	0.9%
Saskatchewan	1.0%	1.1%	1.0%
Alberta	14.8%	10.7%	10.1%
Northwest Territories	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
British Columbia	20.1%	19.0%	21.3%
Yukon	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%
Nunavut	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Appendix A-3: Gender
Gender	Respondents surveyed	Total Sample	Population
Male	64.2%	69.4%	69.3%
Female	35.8%	30.6%	30.7%

Appendix A-4: Country of citizenship
Rank Surveyed	Citizenship country	Respondents surveyed	Rank - CIC file	Total Sample	Population
1	British	11.2%	3	6.6%	6.7%
2	India	8.3%	1	16.8%	16.8%
3	China	6.9%	2	15.8%	16.2%
4	U.S.A.	6.7%	4	4.3%	4.4%
5	Philippines	5.2%	7	3.1%	3.1%
6	Russia	2.7%	10	1.9%	1.8%
7	Nigeria	2.7%	14	1.4%	1.3%
8	Netherlands	2.3%	34	0.6%	0.6%
9	Iran	2.3%	9	2.1%	2.0%
10	Mexico	2.1%	17	1.0%	1.1%

Appendix A-5: Level of education
Education	Respondents surveyed	Total Sample	Population
None	5.0%	3.9%	3.7%
Secondary or less	1.0%	0.7%	0.8%
Formal Trade Cert. or Apprenticeship	4.2%	2.2%	2.3%
Non-University Certificate or Diploma	8.5%	7.8%	7.9%
Some University- No Degree	2.7%	1.4%	1.4%
Bachelor's Degree	41.0%	37.3%	36.9%
Some Post-Grad Education - No Degree	1.0%	1.7%	1.6%
Master's Degree	26.7%	37.1%	37.5%
Doctorate	9.8%	7.9%	8.1%

Appendix A-6: Age at time of landing
Age	Respondents surveyed	Total Sample	Population
20-24 years old	1.1%	1.2%	1.1%
25-29 years old	14.8%	19.6%	19.6%
30-34 years old	21.1%	28.5%	28.7%
35-39 years old	22.3%	21.1%	20.9%
40-44 years old	18.3%	15.1%	15.1%
45-49 years old	13.9%	9.3%	9.3%
50-54 years old	6.1%	4.0%	4.1%
55-59 years old	1.2%	0.7%	0.7%
60-64 years old	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%
65-69 years old	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
70-74 years old	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
75-79 years old	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
80-84 years old	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
85-89 years old	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Appendix A-7: Comparison of maximum, minimum and average ages
Age	Respondents surveyed	Total Sample	Population
Maximum	82 years old	89 years old	89 years old
Minimum	22 years old	4 years old	4 years old*
Average	38 years old	36 years old	36 years old
65 years old and over	8	43	78
70 years old and over	5	14	26
75 years old and over	2	8	13
80 years old and over	1	4	6
* This is likely due to a coding error.

Appendix A-8: Marital status
Marital status	Respondents surveyed	Total Sample	Population
Unknown	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Single	32.1%	34.3%	34.2%
Married	60.2%	60.5%	60.4%
Widowed	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Divorced	3.1%	2.1%	2.2%
Separated	0.5%	0.3%	0.4%
Common-law partner	3.8%	2.6%	2.6%

Appendix A-9: Mother tongue
Rank Surveyed	Mother tongue	Respondents surveyed	Rank - CIC file	Total Sample	Population
1	English	28.9%	1	19.3%	19.2%
2	Spanish	8.5%	5	4.6%	4.4%
3	Arabic	4.9%	4	5.6%	5.5%
4	Russian	4.8%	8	3.6%	3.5%
5	Mandarin	4.4%	3	8.6%	8.8%
6	Chinese	4.1%	2	9.4%	9.9%
7	Tagalog	3.9%	11	2.5%	2.6%
8	German	2.5%	19	1.2%	1.2%
9	Dutch	2.1%	31	0.6%	0.6%
10	Hindi	2.0%	6	4.6%	4.7%

Appendix A-10: Official languages
Official languages	Respondents surveyed	Total Sample	Population
English	82.0%	84.7%	85.0%
French	1.1%	1.0%	1.0%
Both French and English	14.5%	11.2%	11.0%
Neither	2.3%	3.1%	3.1%

Appendix B: Logic model for FSWP

Appendix C: Comparison of Canada’s federal skilled workers program selection system with other similar programs in 2009

Country/ Region	Description
	Eligibility requirements
Canada	The applicant must have at least one year of continuous full-time paid work experience, or the continuous part-time equivalent, in the category of Skill Type 0, or Skill Level A or B, according to the Canadian National Occupational Classification (NOC). The work experience which will be assessed for all skilled worker applicants must: have occurred within the 10 years preceding the date of application; not be in an occupation that is considered a restricted occupation. The applicant must have: Performed the actions described in the lead statement for the occupation(s) as set out in the occupational description of the NOC; Performed a substantial number of the main duties, including all of the essential duties, of the occupation as set out in the occupational description of the NOC. The applicant has sufficient funds available for settlement in Canada.
Quebec	A minimum of a diploma corresponding to a general or vocational high school diploma in Québec Work experience in an occupation with a skill level above “D” as defined by NOC, within the five years preceding the date of application
Australia	Under 45 years old Sufficient English language ability Must meet the qualifications and/or work experience requirements of the appropriate skills assessing body for their profession. Must be assessed as suitable by the relevant body for the nominated occupation on the current version of the Skilled Occupations List Work experience in the nominated occupation for 12 months out of the previous 24 months prior to submitting an application.
New Zealand	Under 56 years old. The minimum standard of English is an IELTS certificate, with a band score of 6.5 Principal applicant and all dependants must be in good health. Job offer, or tertiary or trade qualifications, or two years work experience
	Work Experience	Max. points
Canada	Maximum of 21 points are awarded for experience: Four years or more -21 points Three years -19 points Two years or more -17 points One year -15 points	21
Quebec	Up to 8 points awarded for experience: 48 months – 8 points 24 to 47 months - 6 points 6 to 23 months – 4 points	8
Australia	Additional points are awarded for years of experience In nominated occupation which is worth 60 points or in a closely related occupation, for at least 3 of the 4 years of experience before the date of application - 10 additional points are awarded. In nominated occupation which is worth 40 or 50 points or in a closely related skilled occupation for at least 3 of the 4 years before the date of application - 5 additional points are awarded.	10
New Zealand	Maximum of 30 points can be claimed for number of years worked in the relevant occupation Four years – 15 points Six years – 20 points Eight years – 25 points Ten years – 30 points Additional points (max. 30) can be claimed if: Work experience is from New Zealand – 10 points Work experience in an identified future growth area – 10 points Work experience in an area of absolute skills shortage – 10 points	60
	Offer of employment	Max. points
Canada	Permanent job offer from a Canadian employer, approved by the Canadian Government Department of Human Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC) – 10 points Additional 5 points are awarded under adaptability.	10
Quebec	Maximum 10 points are awarded under the Quebec Immigration Assured Job program for job offers outside the metropolitan area of Montreal. 6 points are awarded for validated job offers within the metropolitan area of Montreal.	10
Australia	Points are awarded for the occupations that are in demand in Australia and are on the Migration Occupations in Demand List (MODL). Extra points are awarded if an applicant has a job offer for the occupation in demand.	20
New Zealand	Offer of skilled employment in New Zealand- 50 points OR (Current skilled employment in New Zealand for less than 12 months – 50 points, Current skilled employment in New Zealand for 12 months or more – 60 points)	60
	Age	Max. points
Canada	21 and 49 years – 10 points Two points are deducted for each year from 20 to 17, and 50 to 53 inclusive	10
Quebec	18 to 35 – 16 points Two points are deducted for each year after 35 to 42 Over 42 – 0 points	16
Australia	18 and 29 years – 30 points 30-34 years- 25 points 35-39 years- 20 points 40-44 years- 15 points	30
New Zealand	20 to 29 - 30 points 30 to 39 - 25 points 40 to 44 – 20 points 45 to 49 – 10 points 50 to 55 - 5 points	30
	Language	Max. points
Canada	1st language (max 16 points): High proficiency - 4 points per ability (listening, writing, reading, and speaking): max. 16 points Moderate proficiency – 2 points per ability: max. 8 points Basic – max. 2 points 2nd language (max 8 points): High proficiency - 2 points per ability (listening, writing, reading, speaking): max. 8 points Moderate proficiency – 2 points per ability: max. 8 points Basic – 1-2 points per ability: max. 2 points	24
Quebec	French – 16 points English – 6 points	22
Australia	IELTS test results are required. Points are awarded as: Proficient (ability to comprehend complex language well and understand detailed reasoning)– 25 points Competent (ability to use and understand fairly complex language, especially where used in a familiar situation)-15 points Vocational (a reasonable command of English, coping with overall meaning of the language in the most situations)-15 points Test results are not required for those who hold a passport from UK, USA, Canada, New Zealand, and Republic of Ireland.	25
New Zealand	NO points are awarded for language. It is a minimum requirement.	n/a
	Education	Max. points
Canada	PhD, or Master's, AND at least 17 years of full-time or full-time equivalent study - 25 points Two or more university degrees at the Bachelor's level AND at least 15 years of full-time or full-time equivalent study- 22 points A two-year university degree at the Bachelor's level AND at least 14 years of full-time or full-time equivalent study - 20 points A one-year university degree at the Bachelor's level AND at least 13 years of full-time or full-time equivalent study - 15 points A three-year diploma, trade certificate or apprenticeship AND at least 15 years of full-time or full-time equivalent study - 22 points A two-year diploma, trade certificate or apprenticeship AND at least 14 years of full-time or full-time equivalent study - 20 points A one-year diploma, trade certificate or apprenticeship AND at least 13 years of full-time or full-time equivalent study - 15 points A one-year diploma, trade certificate or apprenticeship AND at least 12 years of full-time or full-time equivalent study - 12 points Secondary School Educational Credential - 5 points	n/a
Quebec	Maximum of 28 points are awarded for education: High School- 2 points Vocational – 6 points Post secondary – 4 points Community College (1 or 2 yr) – 6 points Vocational School (1yr) / or Community College (1yr or 2yr) AND field training to 12 pts or 16pts – 10 points Community College 3yr – 8 points Community College 3yr AND Field Training to 12 pts or 16pts Undergrad 1yr – 4 points Undergrad 2yrs – 6 points Undergrad 3yrs or more – 10 points Post graduate – 12 points Additional points are awarded for Field Training: Item in part I / (Foreign certificate) or in part II (Certificate from Quebec or equivalent) from the list. - 0, 2, 6, 12,or 16 pts	25
Australia	Education is assessed as part of skill level: For most occupations where training is specific to the occupation (60 points). Must have earned a qualification equal to an Australian Bachelor degree or higher, but not necessarily related to the nominated occupation. For other general skilled occupation (40 points). Must have a qualification equal to an Australian diploma or advanced diploma but not necessarily related to the nominated occupation.	60
New Zealand	If qualification(s) are not in the List of Qualifications Exempt from Assessment, or the List of Qualifications Recognized as an Exception, applicants must have their qualifications recognized by the New Zealand Qualifications Authority (NZQA). The points are awarded as follows: Recognized undergraduate qualification - 50 points Recognized postgraduate qualification – 55 points	65
	Other criteria (adaptability)	Max. points
Canada	Up to 10 points are awarded for: Spouse's or common-law partner's education: 3-5 points Minimum one year of full-time authorized work in Canada: 5 points Minimum two years of full-time authorized post-secondary study in Canada: 5 points Points received under the Arranged Employment Factor: 5 points Family relationship in Canada: 5 points	10
Quebec	Characteristics of a spouse/partner (Max. 16 points): Level of education - 1 to 3 points Diploma/Degree (Foreign, equivalent, on the list) - 1 to 4 Age: 18-35, 36-39, 40–42: 3, 2, 1 points respectively Children (Max. 8): under 12 years of age – 4 points per child: 12 -21 – 2 points per child Financial autonomy: 1 point Adaptability (Max. 6): Personal qualities, Motivation, Knowledge of the province of Quebec Visit to and ties with Quebec (Max. 8 points): Previous visits to study or other visits (max. 5 points) Family in Quebec (3 points)	39
Australia	Australian Qualifications (Max. 25 points): applicant has completed a qualification from an Australian educational institution with max point for Doctorate degree. Spouse skills (5 points): a spouse has the basic requirements of less than 45 years of age, English language ability, a skilled occupation with 12 out of 24 months recent work experience, and suitable skills-assessment from the relevant assessing authority. Australian Work Experience (5 points) Language Skills in one of Australia's designated community languages (5 points). Regional Study in a "regional Australia/low population growth metropolitan area" in Australia. (5 Points). Sponsored Category, if an applicant is being sponsored by an Australian state or territory government (10 points) (applicants who are sponsored have a set pass mark at 100).	55
New Zealand	Close family member in new Zealand (10 points): Spouse/partner has a job offer – 20 points Bonus points for qualifications such as study in New Zealand, (max. 20)	50

Appendix D: IMDB regression results—Impact of the selection regime and selection factors on FSWS employment earnings

Assessing the impact of IRPA

Given the unique circumstances of having immigrants selected under both policy regimes entering Canada at the same time, the impacts of the IRPA selection system relative to the pre-IRPA points system was estimated by taking the mean differences in outcomes experienced by IRPA and pre-IRPA arrival cohorts. For example, in the case of employment earnings – the key outcome measure available in the IMDB data – for the 2002 arrival cohort we took differences in mean earnings in 2003 to 2006. The arrival year 2002 was omitted as immigrants arrived at various points in time during the year so the annual earnings reported for income tax purposes constitute earnings over part of the year. The portion of the year worked is not available from tax data. Similarly, for the 2003 arrival cohort we took differences in mean earnings in 2004 to 2006. Regressions were also ran taking differences in log earnings as this gives a measure of the percentage difference in earnings between immigrants selected under the IRPA and pre-IRPA selection systems.

Note that in comparing earnings of these two groups we did not control for observed characteristics such as age, education, work experience and language proficiency. The reason is that a central objective of the new IRPA policy was to select immigrants with different observable characteristics than those who would be selected under the previous policy regime. If we would have controlled for these observed characteristics, we would have eliminated this potential source of difference in immigrant outcomes. Indeed, if the only difference between the pre-IRPA and IRPA selection systems consists of choosing immigrants with different observed characteristics, controlling for these characteristics would completely eliminate the impact of the policy change.⁵⁰ Note also that it was not appropriate to control for observed characteristics that may influence immigrant outcomes but that are not taken into account in the points system -- such as country of origin. To the extent that the source country composition of immigrants admitted under IRPA differs from that associated with pre-IRPA, this difference is part of the IRPA “treatment.” Controlling for this feature would have eliminated this potential source of differences in immigrant outcomes.

Based on that design, linear regressions were estimated to assess the impact of the IRPA selection regimes on FSWs outcomes. To do so, FSWs who were assessed under both regimes simultaneously (dual assessed cases) were excluded, as it was impossible to know under which of the two selection systems they were selected. Therefore, regressions were made only on pre-IRPA and IRPA cases.

The dependent variable for this first step of the analysis is employment earnings. Pooled data was used, so one individual can contribute as many times to the analysis as they have filed a tax form reporting employment earnings of $1,000 and above between 2002 and 2006. All the observations on the landing year were excluded from the regression, as this year might not represent a full year for everyone depending on when they landed during the year (i.e.: FSWs who landed in 2002 for the 2002 tax year, who landed in 2003 for the 2003 tax year were excluded, etc.).

Appendix D-1 : Linear regression for employment earnings (excluding landing year)
	Model 1		Model 2
	Coefficient	Sig.	Coefficient	Sig.
Intercept	34,665	***	34,665	***
Cohort 2002, tax year 2003	-8,933	***	-8,933	***
Cohort 2002, tax year 2004	-3,185	***	-3,185	***
Cohort 2002, tax year 2005	1,597	***	1,597	***
Cohort 2002, tax year 2006	6,946	***	6,967	***
Cohort 2003, tax year 2004	-10,365	***	-10,365	***
Cohort 2003, tax year 2005	-4,069	***	-4,069	***
Cohort 2003, tax year 2006	1,841	***	1,841	***
Cohort 2004, tax year 2005	-10,380	***	-10,380	***
Cohort 2004, tax year 2006	-3,331	***	-3,331	***
(reference: Cohort 2005, tax year 2006)
Cohort 2002, tax year 2003 * IRPA	14,877	***	-3,001
Cohort 2002, tax year 2004 * IRPA	17,301	***	-1,991
Cohort 2002, tax year 2005 * IRPA	17,058	***	-4,011
Cohort 2002, tax year 2006 * IRPA	17,182	***	-6,904
Cohort 2003, tax year 2004 * IRPA	9,739	***	4,335	***
Cohort 2003, tax year 2005 * IRPA	10,005	***	1,298
Cohort 2003, tax year 2006 * IRPA	9,654	***	340	***
Cohort 2004, tax year 2005 * IRPA	15,783	***	7,387	***
Cohort 2004, tax year 2006 * IRPA	16,162	***	6,384	***
Cohort 2002, tax year 2003 * Gender			22,701	***
Cohort 2002, tax year 2004 * Gender			24,903	***
Cohort 2002, tax year 2005 * Gender			27,127	***
Cohort 2002, tax year 2006 * Gender			31,297	***
Cohort 2003, tax year 2004 * Gender			7,680	***
Cohort 2003, tax year 2005 * Gender			12,726	***
Cohort 2003, tax year 2006 * Gender			14,538	***
Cohort 2004, tax year 2005 * Gender			11,918	***
Cohort 2004, tax year 2006 * Gender			14,003	***
n	199,190		199,190
df	18		27
F	612.91	***	446.57	***
r2	0.052		0.057
*p<0.05
**p<0.01
***p<0.001

Appendix D-2 : Linear regression for the log of employment earnings (excluding landing year)
	Model 1		Model 2
	Coefficient	Sig.	Coefficient	Sig.
Intercept	10.013	***	10.013	***
Cohort 2002, tax year 2003	-0.224	***	-0.224	***
Cohort 2002, tax year 2004	-0.013		-0.013
Cohort 2002, tax year 2005	0.143	***	0.014	***
Cohort 2002, tax year 2006	0.304	***	0.304	***
Cohort 2003, tax year 2004	-0.293	***	-0.293	***
Cohort 2003, tax year 2005	-0.058	***	-0.058	***
Cohort 2003, tax year 2006	0.144	***	0.144	***
Cohort 2004, tax year 2005	-0.299	***	-0.299	***
Cohort 2004, tax year 2006	-0.047	***	-0.047	***
(reference: Cohort 2005, tax year 2006)
Cohort 2002, tax year 2003 * IRPA	0.036	***	-0.189
Cohort 2002, tax year 2004 * IRPA	0.398	***	-0.072
Cohort 2002, tax year 2005 * IRPA	0.347	***	-0.092
Cohort 2002, tax year 2006 * IRPA	0.393	***	-0.162
Cohort 2003, tax year 2004 * IRPA	0.267	***	0.119	**
Cohort 2003, tax year 2005 * IRPA	0.249	***	0.025
Cohort 2003, tax year 2006 * IRPA	0.212	***	-0.011	***
Cohort 2004, tax year 2005 * IRPA	0.462	***	0.237	***
Cohort 2004, tax year 2006 * IRPA	0.435	***	0.196	***
Cohort 2002, tax year 2003 * Gender			0.697	***
Cohort 2002, tax year 2004 * Gender			0.608	***
Cohort 2002, tax year 2005 * Gender			0.566	***
Cohort 2002, tax year 2006 * Gender			0.722	***
Cohort 2003, tax year 2004 * Gender			0.210	***
Cohort 2003, tax year 2005 * Gender			0.328	***
Cohort 2003, tax year 2006 * Gender			0.324	***
Cohort 2004, tax year 2005 * Gender			0.319	***
Cohort 2004, tax year 2006 * Gender			0.342	***
n	199,190		199,190
df	18		27
F	507.41	***	357.26	***
r2	0.043		0.046
*p<0.05
**p<0.01
***p<0.001

Assessing the impact of selection factors

The IMDB data was also used to investigate the factors that account for successful integration into the Canadian labour market. This was done by estimating the relationship between individual earnings and individual and demographic characteristics that influence earnings. The following regression models focus on how the different factors from the selection grid impact on the employment earnings of FSWs. Again, dual assessed cases were excluded from the analysis as it was impossible to determine under which selection grid they qualified for immigration.

As the factors included in the selection grid and the weight assigned to them changed with the introduction of IRPA, equations will be estimated separately using data from the two regimes. The dependent variable for the analysis is the log of employment earnings in 2006. For the purpose of this analysis, the 2006 arrival cohort was excluded as these observations might not have contributed for a full year. In addition, in order to cover the same observation period for both selection regimes, pre-IRPA cases were considered only if they landed in 2002 or after (2002-2005 cohorts). However, it is important to note that not many IRPA cases arrived in 2002, as most of the cohort for that year was composed of pre-IRPA FSWs. Therefore, for 2002, the repartition of the sample between the two regimes was not balanced.

Appendix D-3 : Linear regression for log of employment earnings in tax year 2006 (excluding the 2006 cohort) – IRPA cases
	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3
	Coefficient	Sig.	Coefficient	Sig.	Coefficient	Sig.
Intercept	8.681	***	9.634	***	9.372	***
Years since landing	0.395	***	0.397	***	0.310	***
Years since landing - squared	-0.050	*	-0.057	**	-0.040
Gender (Ref. Women)	0.295	***	0.272	***	0.227	***
Age at landing (Ref. 50 years and older)
Less than 30 years old	0.210	***	0.313	***	0.279	***
30 to 34 years old	0.179	***	0.264	***	0.234	***
35 to 39 years old	0.148	**	0.220	***	0.214	***
40 to 44 years old	0.122	*	0.713	***	0.150	**
45 to 49 years old	0.097		0.139	**	0.144	**
Education points (Ref. 0 to 15 points)
20 points	0.131	**	0.183	***	0.142	***
22 points	0.091	*	0.115	**	0.094	*
25 points	0.107	**	0.195	***	0.174	***
Language points (Ref. 0 to 7 points)
8 points	0.052		0.090		0.065
9 to 11 points	0.100		0.123	*	0.120	*
12 points	0.227	***	0.203	***	0.195	***
13 to 15 points	0.324	***	0.265	***	0.279	***
16 points	0.501	***	0.375	***	0.385	***
17 to 19 points	0.553	***	0.367	***	0.381	***
20 points	0.554	***	0.351	***	0.391	***
21 to 23 points	0.508	***	0.308	***	0.329	***
24 points	0.484	***	0.304	***	0.339	***
Experience points (Ref. 15 points)
17 points	0.010		0.017		0.008
19 points	0.080		0.064		0.053
21 points	0.171	***	0.152	***	0.141	***
Arranged employment points (Ref. 0 points)
10 points	0.917	***	0.789	***	0.743	***
Arranged employment points * years since landing	-0.117	***	0.100	**	0.092	**
Adaptability points
Partner's education points (Ref. 0 points)
3 points	0.021		0.016		0.011
4 points	-0.021		0.032		0.014
5 points	0.092	***	0.135	***	0.121	***
Work in Canada points (Ref. 0 points)
5 points	0.320	***	0.294	***	0.274	***
Study in Canada points (Ref. 0 points)
5 points	-0.162	***	0.061	*	0.061	*
Relatives in Canada points (Ref. 0 points)
5 points	-0.081	***	0.099	***	0.080	***
Province of residence in 2006 (Ref. Ontario)
Atlantic	-0.002		-0.056		-0.084
Quebec	-0.431	***	-0.370	***	-0.380	***
Manitoba and Saskatchewan	-0.040		-0.026		-0.036
Alberta	0.155	***	0.131	***	0.145	***
British Columbia	-0.053	**	-0.068	***	0.047	*
Country/region of last permanent residence (Ref. United Kingdom)
North America			-0.041		0.023
Central America, South America, Caribbean and Bermuda			-0.234	***	-0.237	***
Other Western and Northern Europe			-0.123	**	-0.108	**
Eastern and Southern Europe			-0.399	***	-0.396	***
Western, Eastern, Central and Southern Africa			-0.276	***	-0.241	***
Northern Africa and West Central Asia and Middle East			-0.438	***	-0.414	***
China			-0.726	***	-0.749	***
Other Eastern and South-east Asia			-0.412	***	-0.401	***
India			-0.310	***	-0.314	***
Pakistan			-0.510	***	-0.556	***
Other South Asia			-0.680	***	-0.678	***
Oceania			-0.115	*	-0.101
NOC - skill type (Ref. Professional occupations in natural science and applied sciences (21))
Business, finance and administration occupations, and senior management occupations (00, 01, 11, 12, 14)					0.091	***
Other natural and applied sciences and related occupations (02, 22)					-0.038
Health occupations (03, 31, 32, 34)					-0.198	***
Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion (04, 41, 42)					-0.250	***
Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport (05, 51, 52)					-0.426	***
Sales and service occupations (06, 62, 64, 66)					-0.238	***
Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations (07, 72, 72, 74, 76),					-0.130	***
Occupations unique to primary industry (08, 82, 84, 86),
Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities (09, 92, 94, 96)
n	13,490		13,490		12,205
df	36		48		55
F	89.54	***	82.48	***	73.97	***
r2	0.1993		0.2276		0.2509
*p<0.05
**p<0.01
***p<0.001

Appendix D-4 : Linear regression for log of employment earnings in tax year 2006 (excluding the 2006 cohort) – pre- IRPA cases
	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3
	Coefficient	Sig.	Coefficient	Sig.	Coefficient	Sig.
Intercept	8.745	***	9.129	***	9.225	***
Years since landing	0.452	***	0.376	***	0.361	***
Years since landing - squared	-0.046	***	-0.036	***	-0.037	***
Gender (Ref. Women)	0.246	***	0.238	***	0.222	***
Age at landing (Ref. 50 years and older)
Less than 30 years old	0.134	***	0.233	***	0.229	***
30 to 34 years old	0.155	***	0.236	***	0.236	***
35 to 39 years old	0.132	***	0.201	***	0.198	***
40 to 44 years old	0.079	*	0.109	**	0.104	**
45 to 49 years old	0.014		0.032		0.020
Education points (Ref. 0 to 13 points)
15 points	0.064	***	0.045	***	0.065	***
16 points	0.104	***	0.099	***	0.121	***
Language points (Ref. 0 to 5 points)
6 points	-0.103	***	-0.031		-0.036
7 to 8 points	-0.074	**	0.037		0.035
9 points	0.209	***	0.209	***	0.213	***
10 to 14 points	0.223	***	0.130	***	0.149	***
15 points	0.295	***	0.154	***	0.167	***
Specific vocational preparation (Ref. 0 to 13 points)
15 points	0.110	***	0.151	***	0.111	***
17 points	0.034		0.095	***	0.071	*
18 points	0.048		0.050		0.106	**
Occupation (Ref. 0 to 1 point)
2 to 4 points	0.007		0.020		0.034
5 to 8 points	0.125	***	0.143	***	0.121	***
10 points	0.057	***	0.100	***	0.099	***
Experience points (Ref. 0 to 2 points)
4 points	-0.044	*	-0.024		-0.022
6 points	-0.019		0.011		0.008
8 points	-0.083	***	0.004		-0.008
Arranged employment points (Ref. 0 points)
10 points	0.848	***	0.684	***	0.633	***
Arranged employment points * years since landing	-0.154	**	0.147	**	-0.128	**
Personal suitability (Ref. 0 points)
1 to 4 points	-0.276	***	-0.253	***	-0.234	***
5 points	-0.181	***	-0.198	***	-0.188	***
6 points	-0.095	***	-0.125	***	-0.116	***
7 points	-0.041	**	-0.113	***	-0.103	***
8 points and more	0.014		-0.076	***	-0.067	***
Relatives in Canada points (Ref. less than 5 points)
5 points and more	-0.039	***	-0.048	***	-0.051	***
Province of residence in 2006 (Ref. Ontario)
Atlantic	0.110	*	0.077		0.074
Quebec	-0.484	***	-0.402	***	-0.420	***
Manitoba and Saskatchewan	-0.033		-0.042		-0.050
Alberta	0.268	***	0.266	***	0.261	***
British Columbia	-0.119	***	-0.092	***	-0.087	***
Country/region of last permanent residence (Ref. United Kingdom)
North America			0.072		0.086
Central America, South America, Caribbean and Bermuda			-0.063		-0.056
Other Western and Northern Europe			-0.085	*	-0.066
Eastern and Southern Europe			-0.175	***	-0.174	***
Western, Eastern, Central and Southern Africa			-0.119	***	-0.104	**
Northern Africa and West Central Asia and Middle East			-0.435	***	-0.415	***
China			-0.672	***	-0.657	***
Other Eastern and South-east Asia			-0.347	***	-0.353	***
India			-0.318	***	-0.313	***
Pakistan			-0.645	***	-0.637	***
Other South Asia			-0.482	***	-0.477	***
Oceania			-0.051		-0.047
NOC - skill type (Ref. Professional occupations in natural science and applied sciences (21))
Business, finance and administration occupations, and senior management occupations (00, 01, 11, 12, 14)					-0.012
Other natural and applied sciences and related occupations (02, 22)					0.089	***
Health occupations (03, 31, 32, 34)					-0.062	**
Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion (04, 41, 42)					-0.082	***
Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport (05, 51, 52)					-0.234	***
Sales and service occupations (06, 62, 64, 66)					-0.099	***
Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations (07, 72, 72, 74, 76),					0.085	**
Occupations unique to primary industry (08, 82, 84, 86),
Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities (09, 92, 94, 96)
n	55,215		55,200		54,005
df	37		49		56
F	182.80	***	196.31	***	170.83	***
r2	0.1092		0.1485		0.1506
*p<0.05
**p<0.01
***p<0.001

Glossary of acronyms

AEO – Arranged Employment Offer
CAIPS – Computer Assisted Immigration Processing System
CADGEDC – China Academic Degrees and Graduate Education Development Center
CBA – Canadian Bar Association
CEC – Canadian Experience Class
CIC – Citizenship and Immigration Canada
CSIC – Canadian Society of Immigration Consultants
CVOA – Canadian Visa Office Abroad
CVOS – Canadian Visa Office Staff
FSW(s) – Federal Skilled Workers
FSWP – Federal Skilled Worker Program
FOSS – Field Operations Support System
GCMS – Global Case Management System
HQ – Headquarters
HRSDC – Human Resources and Skills Development Canada
IA – Immigration Act
IELTS – International English Language Testing System
IMDB – Immigration Database
IRPA – Immigration and Refugee Protection Act
NARIC – National Recognition Information Centre for the United Kingdom
NOC – National Occupation Classification
PA- Principal Applicant
PNs – Provincial Nominees
PNP – Provincial Nominee Program
PR – Provincial Representatives
RPP – Report on Plans and Priorities
PRTD –Permanent Resident Temporary Document
QSW – Quebec Skilled Worker

Notes

⁵⁰ It is also possible that the IRPA selection system results in immigrants with different unobserved characteristics (such as ambition, perseverance or motivation). Such unobserved characteristics may also influence immigrant outcomes.

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Date modified:: 2010-10-28

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